CURRENT UPWP   //  TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL UPDATES AND IMPROVEMENTS

TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL UPDATES AND IMPROVEMENTS

Data Collection & Tools

Background

Like most metropolitan planning organizations, the APO maintains a regional travel demand model in order to forecast future traffic volumes given certain changes in the roadway network and/or changes in regional social-demographic characteristics. The APO’s travel demand model is based in CUBE software from Citilabs.

The APO recently completed its Federally-required Metropolitan Transportation Plan which entailed both re-calibrating the travel demand model to base-year 2015 and producing year 2045 traffic forecasts. While the calibrated model did meet validation and reasonableness checks, APO staff wants to push the model to exceed minimum validation criteria. Multi-million-dollar investment decisions are made based (at least in part) on model results. APO staff feels strongly that the model needs to be extremely reliable and credible. The APO is interested in updates to its travel demand model that have proven or demonstrated value in improving model accuracy, streamlining or making easier the model development, specification, or operation process, or improving the presentation of model results.

What Has Happened So Far?

Updated May 15, 2020

The project Request for Proposals (RFP) was released on January 2, 2020. RFPs are, essentially, notices to the consultant community that we are seeking a qualified consulting firm to do some work for us. In response, interested parties prepared proposals and cost estimates for how they will approach this project.

In February, the APO staff reviewed the proposals and ranked the proposal from Metro Analytics as offering the best value for the public’s dollars.

In March, final scope-of-work and contract negotiations were completed.

On May 14th, the APO Policy Board approved a contract with Metro Analytics to conduct the work.

Then What?

The consultant is currently working on making improvements to the model files.

How Can You Participate?

Given the extreme technical nature of this project, we will not be soliciting public input. It is highly unlikely that general public comments would meaningfully inform the coding of a computer model. Instead, we expect the updates to be based on rigorous research and demonstrated benefits in other models from similar sized regions.