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TDM Calibration & 2050 Population Forecast

Traffic Modeling

The base year for the next Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) will be 2020. Assuming that 2020 Census data and traffic counts will be available by Spring of 2022, the Census data needs to be distributed to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) and the APO’s regional Travel Demand Model (TDM) needs to be recalibrated to the new base year. But, before the TDM can be recalibrated, the APO desires that the outcomes of two previous projects be fully incorporated into the TDM: 1) the Travel Demand Model Improvement effort in 2020 and 2) the 2021 Household Travel Survey. Both of those efforts resulted in outputs and recommendations that need to be implemented into the TDM program files. Also, since 2050 is the horizon planning-year for the next MTP, reasonable estimates of 2050 population, jobs, and other socio-economic data need to be completed in cooperation with the APO’s member jurisdictions and distributed to the TAZs. Finally, using the 2050 socio-economic data and the 2020 roadway network (provided by APO staff), a 2050 no-build model scenario needs to be completed in order to highlight future areas of concern if no additional investments were made in the roadway network.


Previous Relevant Work

2017 – Population Forecast for 2045 Memo

2019 – Travel Demand Model Calibration Report

2020 – Model Improvement Tech Memos

2021 – Household Travel Survey Documents